Comments on: Energy systems modelling: models and the real world https://blogs.sps.ed.ac.uk/global-environment-society-academy/2017/05/22/energy-systems-modelling-models-and-the-real-world/ Addressing global environmental challenges through teaching, research and outreach Mon, 12 Jun 2017 16:51:18 +0000 hourly 1 By: Joe DeCarolis https://blogs.sps.ed.ac.uk/global-environment-society-academy/2017/05/22/energy-systems-modelling-models-and-the-real-world/#comment-29049 Mon, 12 Jun 2017 16:51:18 +0000 http://blogs.sps.ed.ac.uk/global-environment-society-academy/?p=508#comment-29049 Nice article! Along these lines, I recently published a paper with several colleagues from UCL titled “Formalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling”: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261917302192

We tried to cover this topic in some detail.

]]> By: Chris Dent https://blogs.sps.ed.ac.uk/global-environment-society-academy/2017/05/22/energy-systems-modelling-models-and-the-real-world/#comment-29039 Thu, 25 May 2017 13:27:26 +0000 http://blogs.sps.ed.ac.uk/global-environment-society-academy/?p=508#comment-29039 In reply to Simon Shackley.

A brief reply on this – thanks for your kind words on my article! My understanding is that TIMES is an evolution of MARKAL (it stands for “The Integrated MARKAL-EFOM System”.) However my point is rather broader – when thinking on planning timescales there are many aspects of the real world (including those you name) which cannot be considered in tractable optimization problems, or where accurate data are not available. The question is how, given this inconvenient truth, we can best use modelling to help make decisions which we are confident will be good ones _in the real world_.

]]> By: Simon Shackley https://blogs.sps.ed.ac.uk/global-environment-society-academy/2017/05/22/energy-systems-modelling-models-and-the-real-world/#comment-29038 Wed, 24 May 2017 11:41:26 +0000 http://blogs.sps.ed.ac.uk/global-environment-society-academy/?p=508#comment-29038 Thanks for an interesting article Chris and you make very salient points. The earlier version of MARKAL seemed to rely upon linear optimisation which seems a misreading of economic thought, especially the emerging insights of evolutionary and behavioural economics. Optimisation fits better with the neo-classical view of economic processes, which we’ve now come to see as operating within a rather narrow set of conditions. Neo-classical economics fails to explain why customers don’t switch energy suppliers when there are cheaper tariffs available, but behavioural economics is more useful here. When it comes to technological change, evolutionary economics turns out to be much more useful that the neo-classical paradigm. The SG has been using the TIMES model in its energy and climate strategy but its not one I’ve looked at so don’t know whether it is in the same vein as MARKAL or has successfully responded to the critiques of the latter. Have you applied your thinking above to the TIMES model and could you say anything about that at this stage? I’d also be interested to know whether you’ve been conducting uncertainty analysis of the TIMES model?

]]> By: Sustainablefriends https://blogs.sps.ed.ac.uk/global-environment-society-academy/2017/05/22/energy-systems-modelling-models-and-the-real-world/#comment-29036 Tue, 23 May 2017 10:47:37 +0000 http://blogs.sps.ed.ac.uk/global-environment-society-academy/?p=508#comment-29036 Hi! We invite you to join our community of conservation projects, environmental educational activities and ideas to help the environment http://www.sustainablefriends.com, so that you can participate and benefit in multiple ways.

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