Brazilians lack the British obsession with weather. I often start conversations by commenting on how sunny it is, only to remember that every day is sunny in Brasilia. Talking about water is perhaps the closest equivalent. Most Brazilians have an opinion on the subject – whether about the standing water that breeds zika- and dengue-spreading mosquitoes, regional droughts, or poor sanitation.

The subject hit the international headlines last year when Sao Paulo, a city of 20 million people, nearly ran out of water. By the end of the dry season in September, the city’s main reservoir was running on dregs, or “volume morto”. Water pressure was reduced and poor households frequently went hours without supply. Thankfully, reserves have risen since then and the worst crisis was avoided. A strong El Nino has helped here (though not in southern states and nearby Uruguay and Paraguay, where 150,000 people were displaced by Christmas floods). Experts think Sao Paulo will probably need to use back-up supplies again this year nevertheless.

Cantareira Reservoir running low in 2015, photo by Evelson de Freitas, Estadão de São Paulo.

It seems odd that Brazil, which has more fresh water than any other country, should experience water shortages. The problem is that resources are concentrated in the low-populated Amazon region. The northeast has experienced years of devastating drought, and the southeast (where Sao Paulo and Rio are) has had a run of below-average rainfall. Pipes connect the regions but pumping water across distances equivalent to London-Istanbul is prohibitively expensive.

Climate change and environmental degradation are exacerbating the problem. The dry northeast may see rainfall drop another 20%. Sao Paulo and the southeast expect more rainfall, but intensely, punctuated by years of drought. Rainforest loss means less transpiration for the “flying rivers” that bring rain down south. And illegal urban construction near rivers prevents rainfall from being absorbed. Replanting trees near rivers would be a cheaper way to preserve rainfall than big infrastructure projects linking water basins, but demand for urban land is high, and laws aren’t always enforced.

Water scarcity also affects the economy through energy prices. Around three-quarters of Brazil’s electricity is generated by hydro. Last year’s water shortage in the southeast was exacerbated by political decisions to run hydro (the cheapest form of generation) more intensively to keep electricity bills down before the November 2014 elections. If there are further droughts because of climate change, Brazil’s hydro capacity may be reduced. To maintain a low carbon power supply and meet its international climate commitments, Brazil will need to achieve all itsambitions to develop solar and wind power. (Nuclear is theoretically possible but the only plant under development is stalled by corruption investigations).

This is a real pressure on Brazil’s emissions. Between 2011 and 2014, emissions from power generation increased 171% even though generation only increased by 11%. The increase (admittedly from a very low base) was because of the shift to thermal.

Meanwhile, water and sanitation services are poor. More than half of Brazilians don’t have their sewage collected. A tiny percent of waste water is treated and returned into the water system, which means there’s more pressure on freshwater sources (and more energy spent pumping water around the network). Access to piped water hasincreased significantly (from 78% to 94% of the population between 1990 and 2015), but there is insufficient investment in maintenance, and more than a third of water is lost in leakage.

The culture of water use is starting to change. Paulistanos talked obsessively about water last year, sharing tips on how to use less. There are some easy savings – the average Brazilian used 167 litres per day in 2014, compared 121l in Germany. The culture of showering twice a day probably won’t stop though, unless pipes actually run dry – Brazilians are notoriously clean and often find foreigners smelly!

Source: Euromonitor, 2015

References

Destatis – Statistiches Bundesamt, ‘Use of drinking water remained constant in 2013’, webpage viewed 11 March 2016. https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/Environment/EnvironmentalSurveys/WaterSupplyIndustry/Current.html

Euromonitor 2014, Global Bathing Habits, Datagraphic Survey

Girardi, G 2015, ‘Site monitora em tempo real emissões de CO2 do setor elétrico no Brasil’, Estadão de São Paulo, 19 November

Hirtenstein, A 2015, ‘Brazil Seeks to Boost Solar Industry to Match Wind, BNDES Says’, Bloomberg, 28 October

IPCC 2014, Central and South America, chapter 27 in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1499-1566.

Lada, B 2016, South America autumn forecast: Brazil drought to ease; Early rains to soak Colombia to Chile, Accuweather.com, 2 March, viewed 11 March 2016. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2016-south-america-autumn-forecast-drought-eases-brazil-rain-colombia-to-chile/55603181

Ministerio de Minas e Energia 2014, Energia no Bloco dos Brics: Ano de Referencia 2013

OECD 2015, Environmental Performance Review: Brazil 2015, OECD Publishing, Paris

Time 2015, A Megacity Without Water: Sao Paulo’s drought, online video, 13 October, viewed 11 March 2016. http://time.com/4054262/drought-brazil-video/

WHO/UNICEF 2015, Water Supply Statistics.

Urbanization of the Oceans – Blue Growth?

gesafacilitator — Mon, 12 Jan 2015 08:40:15 +0000

Dr Meriwether Wilson

Dr Meriwether Wilson

Over 100 years ago, a fierce philosophical debate circled the salons, cafes, balls and bars of intellectuals and pioneers alike – often known as the ‘American wilderness’ debate. The legendary icons of this debate included: John Muir (originally from Dunbar, Scotland), founder of the Sierra Club and pivotal in establishing globally famous wilderness areas such as Yosemite National Park in western California; and Gilbert Pinchot, who took the view that these same vast areas of seemingly infinite forest and water resources, were ideal for logging, providing timber for America’s growing cities and towns.

Muir mused about humanity’s primal need for wild places to ponder, enjoy, protect, even if very little was known about these areas; while Pinchot extolled the virtues of potential for economic growth and civic prosperity. We debate these same concepts and positions today, but increasingly within a lexicon of ‘ecosystem services’, with economic growth still assumed to be potentially ‘sustainable’ and as well as catalytic to human well being and social equity. Perhaps when it comes to terrestrial reaches of our planet we have given up on the protection argument, as remotely sensed images fill our minds revealing the certainty of our degradation. We hope that innovative engineering and restoration will recover the green we once associated with the our planet, for future generations.

Yet, what imaginations mentally surface when we reflect on the 70% of our planet that is ocean – upwellings of blueness, deep, dark, mysterious…untapped resources? Are we in the middle of an intellectual confluence of values and technological prowess with regard to the oceans, as we once were with untouched realms of North America? Conversations about land-based environmental resources and strategies increasingly use the word security (e.g. water security, food security, energy security) rather than opportunity, suggesting a sense of urgency. Yet with the ocean, concepts about blue growth and blue economies abound, suggesting a new frontier.

A quick scan of recent position papers and international leadership reinforce this posture, and interestingly blur the line between blue and green, with ‘green’ being a metaphor for ‘sustainable’ while ‘blue’ still suggesting solutions and potential. For example, UNEP’s 2012 report Green Economy in a Blue World states that the ocean is a “cornucopia for humanity”, suggesting and endless bounty for our perusal. The report goes on to note that “creating a green economy in the blue world, can improve human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities; and create sustainable jobs with lasting economic value” (UNEP, 2012, p. 7). A recent 2014 EU communication is entitled Innovation in the Blue Economy: realizing the potential of our seas and oceans for jobs and growth (EU COM(2014) 254 final/2), proposes that with sufficient and open transfer of technically acquired marine knowledge (e.g. seabed mapping), coupled with marine spatial planning, goals such as those proposed by UNEP above are achievable. A vision of enlightened access and benefit sharing of marine resources for all sectors of humanity, with extraction conduced in some magical non-species/ecosystem harming way is compelling and seductive. Is this naïve?

Are there lessons learned from terrestrial development and resource sharing where knowledge and access are stunningly transparent and easy compared with marine environments? Do eminent oceanographers and marine scientists of recent generations offer prescient insights? Carlton Ray, in 1970 wrote a seminal paper entitled Ecology, Law and the Marine Revolution pondering the interactions of ecological dynamics and human dynamics, with the yet to be formalized Law of the Sea envisaged as a beacon to rationalize our goals within the limits and finiteness of the ocean. Nearly 30 years later, JBC Jackson writes in his 2008 paper Ecological extinction and evolution in the brave new ocean that the synergistic impact of our human footprint (largely from overexploitation, pollution and climate change) on marine ecosystems and species is similar to, perhaps greater than, impacts of previous mass extinctions. Only three months ago, in November 2014, the Global Oceans Commission launched a report with the prescient title From Decline to Recovery – A rescue package for the global ocean, focusing largely on the high seas where legal peculiarities and complexities have resulted in 64% of the ocean being unprotected, unstewarded in any real way. As nation states progress in paradoxically parallel races to both protect and exploit seas and within their EEZs (notionally out to 200 nautical miles), it is sobering that this report framed the ocean not as one of bountiful “cornucopia” but as one in need of rescue, requiring our human ingenuity to restore, rather than destroy, the ocean as we know it.

In the debates proposed for this upcoming “Global Environment Society Academy” MSc reading week, we encourage you to read, and reflect on the philosophical concept – the precautionary principle – and if can be better applied to address the inevitably intertwined goals of protection and exploitation for the ocean in this century, than we did for terrestrial realms in the past century.

References:

EU 2014. Innovation in the Blue Economy: realising the potential of our seas and oceans for jobs and growth.

http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=COM:2014:254:REV1&from=EN

Global Oceans Commission, 2014. From Decline to Recovery: A Rescue Package for the Global Ocean

http://www.globaloceancommission.org

http://missionocean.me

Jackson, JBC, 2008. Ecological extinction and evolution in the brave new ocean. Proceedings of the National Academy of Science (PNAS), August 12, 2008, vol 105, suppl 1 (11458-11465)

Ray, C., 1970. Ecology, Law and the “Marine Revolution”. Biological Conservation, Vol 3, No. 1, October 1970 (7-17)

UNEP, 2012. Green economy in a Blue World – Synthesis Report.

http://unep.org/pdf/green_economy_blue.pdf

Dr. Wilson is a Lecturer in Marine Science and Policy at the University of Edinburgh focusing on the science-policy-society intersections of transboundary marine ecosystems and services, in particular international waters. Her current research explores emerging challenges in coastal-marine governance and marine ecology regarding infrastructure establishments in nearshore and offshore marine areas. This research builds upon two decades of experience with international organizations (World Bank, UNESCO, UNDP, IUCN, NOAA) on the establishing marine protected areas globally across diverse ecological scales, cultures and economies

Blue growth – Global Environment & Society Academy

Come rain or shine

Catherine Barbour

Urbanization of the Oceans – Blue Growth?