Energy – Global Environment & Society Academy https://blogs.sps.ed.ac.uk/global-environment-society-academy Addressing global environmental challenges through teaching, research and outreach Fri, 18 Nov 2016 10:28:42 +0000 en-US hourly 1 Come rain or shine https://blogs.sps.ed.ac.uk/global-environment-society-academy/2016/08/10/come-rain-or-shine/ https://blogs.sps.ed.ac.uk/global-environment-society-academy/2016/08/10/come-rain-or-shine/#comments Wed, 10 Aug 2016 15:46:59 +0000 http://blogs.sps.ed.ac.uk/global-environment-society-academy/?p=483 Continue reading ]]>

Catherine Barbour

Online MSc Carbon Management 2015-2016

Brazilians lack the British obsession with weather.  I often start conversations by commenting on how sunny it is, only to remember that every day is sunny in Brasilia.  Talking about water is perhaps the closest equivalent. Most Brazilians have an opinion on the subject – whether about the standing water that breeds zika- and dengue-spreading mosquitoes, regional droughts, or poor sanitation.

The subject hit the international headlines last year when Sao Paulo, a city of 20 million people, nearly ran out of water.  By the end of the dry season in September, the city’s main reservoir was running on dregs, or “volume morto”.  Water pressure was reduced and poor households frequently went hours without supply.  Thankfully, reserves have risen since then and the worst crisis was avoided. A strong El Nino has helped here (though not in southern states and nearby Uruguay and Paraguay, where 150,000 people were displaced by Christmas floods). Experts think Sao Paulo will probably need to use back-up supplies again this year nevertheless.

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Cantareira Reservoir running low in 2015, photo by Evelson de Freitas, Estadão de São Paulo.

It seems odd that Brazil, which has more fresh water than any other country, should experience water shortages.  The problem is that resources are concentrated in the low-populated Amazon region.  The northeast has experienced years of devastating drought, and the southeast (where Sao Paulo and Rio are) has had a run of below-average rainfall. Pipes connect the regions but pumping water across distances equivalent to London-Istanbul is prohibitively expensive.

Climate change and environmental degradation are exacerbating the problem.  The dry northeast may see rainfall drop another 20%.  Sao Paulo and the southeast expect more rainfall, but intensely, punctuated by years of drought. Rainforest loss means less transpiration for the “flying rivers” that bring rain down south.  And illegal urban construction near rivers prevents rainfall from being absorbed.  Replanting trees near rivers would be a cheaper way to preserve rainfall than big infrastructure projects linking water basins, but demand for urban land is high, and laws aren’t always enforced.

Water scarcity also affects the economy through energy prices. Around three-quarters of Brazil’s electricity is generated by hydro.  Last year’s water shortage in the southeast was exacerbated by political decisions to run hydro (the cheapest form of generation) more intensively to keep electricity bills down before the November 2014 elections.  If there are further droughts because of climate change, Brazil’s hydro capacity may be reduced.  To maintain a low carbon power supply and meet its international climate commitments, Brazil will need to achieve all itsambitions to develop solar and wind power.  (Nuclear is theoretically possible but the only plant under development is stalled by corruption investigations).

This is a real pressure on Brazil’s emissions. Between 2011 and 2014, emissions from power generation increased 171% even though generation only increased by 11%.  The increase (admittedly from a very low base) was because of the shift to thermal.

Meanwhile, water and sanitation services are poor.  More than half of Brazilians don’t have their sewage collected.  A tiny percent of waste water is treated and returned into the water system, which means there’s more pressure on freshwater sources (and more energy spent pumping water around the network).  Access to piped water hasincreased significantly (from 78% to 94% of the population between 1990 and 2015), but there is insufficient investment in maintenance, and more than a third of water is lost in leakage.

The culture of water use is starting to change.  Paulistanos talked obsessively about water last year, sharing tips on how to use less.  There are some easy savings – the average Brazilian used 167 litres per day in 2014, compared 121l in Germany.  The culture of showering twice a day probably won’t stop though, unless pipes actually run dry – Brazilians are notoriously clean and often find foreigners smelly!

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Source: Euromonitor, 2015

References

Destatis – Statistiches Bundesamt, ‘Use of drinking water remained constant in 2013’, webpage viewed 11 March 2016. https://www.destatis.de/EN/FactsFigures/NationalEconomyEnvironment/Environment/EnvironmentalSurveys/WaterSupplyIndustry/Current.html

Euromonitor 2014, Global Bathing Habits, Datagraphic Survey

Girardi, G 2015, ‘Site monitora em tempo real emissões de CO2 do setor elétrico no Brasil’, Estadão de São Paulo, 19 November

Hirtenstein, A 2015, ‘Brazil Seeks to Boost Solar Industry to Match Wind, BNDES Says’, Bloomberg, 28 October

IPCC 2014, Central and South America, chapter 27 in Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part B: Regional Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1499-1566.

Lada, B 2016, South America autumn forecast: Brazil drought to ease; Early rains to soak Colombia to Chile, Accuweather.com, 2 March, viewed 11 March 2016.  http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2016-south-america-autumn-forecast-drought-eases-brazil-rain-colombia-to-chile/55603181

Ministerio de Minas e Energia 2014, Energia no Bloco dos Brics: Ano de Referencia 2013

OECD 2015, Environmental Performance Review: Brazil 2015, OECD Publishing, Paris

Time 2015, A Megacity Without Water: Sao Paulo’s drought, online video, 13 October, viewed 11 March 2016. http://time.com/4054262/drought-brazil-video/

WHO/UNICEF 2015, Water Supply Statistics.

 

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Morocco’s path to solar energy https://blogs.sps.ed.ac.uk/global-environment-society-academy/2016/07/01/moroccos-path-to-solar-energy/ https://blogs.sps.ed.ac.uk/global-environment-society-academy/2016/07/01/moroccos-path-to-solar-energy/#respond Fri, 01 Jul 2016 11:32:20 +0000 http://blogs.sps.ed.ac.uk/global-environment-society-academy/?p=469 Continue reading ]]> Morocco ratified the Climate Convention in 1996 and was the first African country to host a Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). In 2015, Morocco presented its INDC (Intended Nationally Determined Contribution under UNFCCC), where it is stated that Morocco’s main focus is on the energy sector and that it aims to reduce its GHG emissions by 32 % by 2030 compared to “business as usual” projected emissions, which translates into a projected cumulative reduction of 401 Mt CO2eq over the period 2020-2030. In practice, Morocco’s objective is to reach over 50 % of installed electricity production capacity from renewable sources by 2025.

The increase of percentage of renewable energy utilisation is based on both the increment of renewable energy production and the reduction of consumption as a whole. In particular, for solar energy, the target that Morocco has presented in its 2015 INDC refers to an increase in production of 14% until 2020.

Morocco has abundant wind and solar resources. According to a study by Dii (2013), wind, photovoltaic and concentrated solar thermal power industrial sectors could add up to 5% of GDP by 2030. However, as the same report suggests, this progress is dependent on the continuing financial support of the national and international organisations directly implicated in green energy investment. The use of more environmentally friendly sources of energy could halve the current  imports of fossil fuels by 2030, which currently represents 8% of the GDP, according to a study by Agénor et al (2015). The same study also indicated that fuel import costs as a proportion of the total value of exports have increased from 25% in 2003 to over 55% in 2012.

For Morocco, following the path of renewable energy is therefore a way to stay competitive and reducing their dependency on importations. This priority has been addressed by the National Government which developed “Solar Plan” as one of their seven base strategies in 2009. Solar Plan’s major objective if the creation of five major sites of solar energy production as well as “training, technical expertise, research and development, the promotion of an integrated solar industry and potentially the desalination of sea water”. (http://www.maroc.ma/en/content/solar-plan)

key sites

KWh

“Sunshine Map” (Source: http://masen.org.ma/index.php?Id=15&lang=en#/_)

As part of Solar Plan activties, in February 2016 a new milestone is reached with the inauguration of Ouarzazate Concentrated Solar Power with a capacity of 140 MW of power generation. (http://www.worldbank.org/projects/P122028/ma-ouarzazate-concentrated-solar-power?lang=en&tab=results)

The video bellow provides additional information on Ouarzazate Concentrated Solar Power, which is the first of the five sites of energy production to be inaugurated.

In 2010, the road to solar energy in Morocco was punctuated by the official beginning of Medgrid, which is a consortium of 21 industrial groups set up to promote the development of electricity networks in the Mediterranean basin with the purpose of exporting renewable energy to Europe.(http://pulse.edf.com/en/medgrid-mediterranean-electricity-network). The video bellow is an interview with Jean Kowal, Deputy Director General of Medgrid.

Since the climatic conditions of northern african countries allow for a cheaper solar energy production than in other countries in Europe, Medgrid can be an answer for both southern and northern shores of the Mediterranean in terms of clean energy. (http://pulse.edf.com/en/medgrid-mediterranean-electricity-network)

In practice, there is already in place a link for the transfer of 1,400 MW between Morocco and Spain using submarine cables along the Strait of Gibraltar, and the plan is to increase it by 4,000 MW. (http://blogs.worldbank.org/energy/renewable-energy-export-import-win-win-eu-and-north-africa) The transfer of energy between Morocco and the Iberian Energy market is already in place, and relies on the different peak times of production and demand.

For Morocco, solar energy is therefore not only a way to reduce the dependency of the importation of commodities for energy production, but also a potential source of revenue by exporting it to the countries in the northern shore of the mediterranean. In practice, the project involves major investment in not only solar production centres but also on electricity highways across continents.

Morocco seems to be looking at its own resources to feed growing demands in terms of energy. In a country particularly vulnerable to climate change such as Morocco but with strong potential for solar and wind energy production, taking the green energy road is the best way to face the future.

References

Agénor, P.-R., El Aynaoui, K. 2015. Morocco: Growth Strategy for 2025 in an Evolving International Environment. OCP Policy Center. Rabat.

Dii. 2013. Les énergies renouvelables au Maroc : Un secteur porteur de croissance et d’emplois. Report presented in Casablanca, 22 May.

EDF Pulse Official Webpage. Available in http://pulse.edf.com/en

Morocco’s INDC. 2015. Online. Available inhttp://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/Morocco/1/Morocco%20INDC%20submitted%20to%20UNFCCC%20-%205%20june%202015.pdf

Morocco’s Official Government Webpage. Available inhttp://www.maroc.ma/en

World Bank official webpage. Available in http://www.worldbank.org

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Towards Commercial Seabed Mining – Sustainable or Sacrilege? https://blogs.sps.ed.ac.uk/global-environment-society-academy/2014/12/18/towards-commercial-seabed-mining-sustainable-or-sacrilege/ https://blogs.sps.ed.ac.uk/global-environment-society-academy/2014/12/18/towards-commercial-seabed-mining-sustainable-or-sacrilege/#respond Thu, 18 Dec 2014 15:05:31 +0000 http://blogs.sps.ed.ac.uk/global-environment-society-academy/?p=371 Continue reading ]]> Dr James Harrison

Dr James HarrisonThe presence of minerals on the deep seabed was first discovered by the HMS Challenger expedition in 1873. Polymetallic nodules and other seabed resources (polymetallic sulphides and crusts) offer abundant supplies of valuable minerals, including manganese, cobalt, copper, gold, silver and several so-called rare earth elements.

Despite our knowledge of this (literal) goldmine at the bottom of the oceans, it was not possible to exploit these riches for almost 100 years due to their inaccessibility. Yet, the profits to be gained from mineral mining on the ocean floor have meant that millions of dollars have been invested in developing the technology to conduct deep seabed mining on a commercial scale. In the last few years, mining companies have announced technological breakthroughs and it is widely anticipated that deep seabed mining will become a reality within the next decade.

This development has a number of potential benefits. Firstly, it addresses concerns about the growing scarcity of many valuable minerals required for manufacturing items that are in increasing demand in modern society, particularly communications and computing equipment, as well as renewable energy technologies (components of wind turbines, solar panels and energy-saving light bulbs). There are also potential broader benefits of deep seabed mining. The legal regime for the regulation of deep seabed mining beyond national jurisdiction, contained in the 1982 United Nations Convention for the Law of the Sea, declares that the mineral resources of the deep seabed are the “common heritage of mankind”. Thus, the profits to be obtained from seabed mining are to be equitably distributed amongst the international community, taking into particular consideration the interests and needs of developing countries.

Yet, not everyone is thrilled at the prospect of deep seabed mining. Critics point out that we know very little about the marine environment on the ocean floor and therefore we should proceed with caution before authorizing commercial activities. It has been suggested that deep seabed mining poses unacceptable risks, including direct damage to vulnerable deep seabed ecosystems, as well as noise, light and other forms of pollution from mining activities. As a result, groups such as Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth have called for a moratorium on deep seabed mining. They argue that a precautionary approach[1] is required and this activity should not be permitted to commence until independently verified research has been conducted in order to demonstrate that ecosystems will not suffer long-term negative impacts.

Even the International Seabed Authority, which is responsible for overseeing the deep seabed mining regime beyond national jurisdiction, has admitted that seabed mining will cause “inevitable environmental damage.” Yet, a precautionary approach to deep seabed mining does not necessarily entail a full-scale moratorium until there is evidence that no harm will be caused. The international regime for deep seabed mining beyond national jurisdiction already requires mining companies to conduct environmental impact assessment and continuous monitoring of mining operations. Moreover, the International Seabed Authority is empowered to oversee the activities of commercial mining companies and to step in if serious damage is caused to the marine environment. The International Seabed Authority has also provisionally established nine protected areas in the central Pacific where no mining will be allowed to take place and it can require mining companies to establish additional “preservation references zones” within their mining areas. Supporters of the commercial seabed mining argue that these measures are sufficient to prevent the type of long-term negative impacts that worry environmental campaigners. Furthermore, such an approach is arguably in accordance with the concept of sustainable development, which requires a balance between economic development and environmental protection, ensuring that resources can be exploited for the benefit of both present and future generations.[2]

Discussion Questions

  • Is sustainable development a useful concept for managing seabed resources?
  • In what circumstances should environmental protection take priority over economic development?
  • What is meant by the precautionary approach in the context of seabed mining? Who should bear the burden of demonstrating that the environmental risks of an activity are acceptable or not?
  • Who should be responsible for monitoring the effects of seabed mining on the environment?
  • How much of the seabed should be designated as a protected area and who should decide?

 

Indicative Readings:

 

  • International Seabed Authority, Environmental Management Needs for Exploration and Exploitation of Deep Sea Minerals, ISA Technical Study No. 10 (2012) 29-33, available at:

http://www.isa.org.jm/files/documents/EN/Pubs/TS10/TS10-Final.pdf

 

  • Greenpeace International, Deep Seabed Mining: An Urgent Wake-up Call to Protect our Oceans (July 2013) 3-16, available at:

http://www.greenpeace.org/international/Global/international/publications/oceans/2013/Deep-Seabed-Mining.pdf

 

Dr James Harrison is Lecturer in International Law in the School of Law at the University of Edinburgh and he has research interests in International Law of the Sea and International Environmental Law. He has written widely on these subjects, including Making the Law of the Sea: A Case Study in the Development of International Law (Cambridge University Pr

[1] Principle 15 of the Rio Declaration on Environment and Development on the precautionary approach says that “where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.”

[2] The Brundtland Commission defined sustainable development as “Development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs”; The World Commission on Environment and Development, Our Common Future (Oxford University Press, 1987) 43.

 

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The Counterfactual Geography of More Sustainable Energy. https://blogs.sps.ed.ac.uk/global-environment-society-academy/2014/04/16/counterfactual/ https://blogs.sps.ed.ac.uk/global-environment-society-academy/2014/04/16/counterfactual/#comments Wed, 16 Apr 2014 19:38:36 +0000 http://blogs.sps.ed.ac.uk/global-environment-society-academy/?p=285 Continue reading ]]> dan-vanIn this blog post Dan Van der Horst explores our very human relationship with energy.  He challenges us to peek over the garden fence at the smorgasbord of sustainable energy practices being creatively devised and adopted by our European Neighbours.   Dan argues that a ‘keeping up with the Joneses’ attitude may well be what we need to inspire us to reimagine our Nation’s energy options – and may even motivate us to aspire to be future leaders in the sustainable energy market.

Energy is like blood; we can’t do without it but we don’t want to see it. When it comes to the energy debate, much of the focus is about what we don’t want. There are backbenchers who don’t want wind farms in one’s pleasant green, and parties who proclaim they don’t like nuclear. Where there was once a political reluctance to depend on domestic coal, these days our dependency on oil or gas from parts of Asia does not sit comfortably either. Collectively we sound almost like a protest party; blaming the government du jour or politicians in general, distrustful of those foreign ‘Big Six’, we want power returned to us, without too much of a plan as to how that’s done. .  Some of us have dreams, for sure;  fracking revolution, 100% renewables, nuclear renaissance, take your pick.  And then we are rudely woken up by another IPCC report about climbing emissions and pathetic little mitigation and adaptation to date.

Given the threats of climate change, our creaking energy infrastructure, the ongoing depletion of easily accessible resources and the growing issue of fuel poverty it is very clear that significant changes and investments are needed in our energy system. It’s not a shortage of good science that’s standing in the way. It’s a dearth of imagination, of ourselves as citizens and of the governments we elect.  We don’t even have to be original in order to be imaginative, there is plenty of inspiration out there, for us to bring home.  How much renewable energy would we have if we had been as imaginative as the Danes or the Germans?  How much safer and cleaner would your city be if it had reversed the urban pecking order between bikes and cars, like the Dutch have done, or had introduced congestion charges like London has?  How much wind power would we have if we lined up all our motorways (already noisy and lacking in aesthetic appeal) with wind turbines?  How much heat is being dumped into the atmosphere by our electricity-only power plants, and how many people in neighboring communities could be lifted out of fuel poverty is this heat was offered to them through district heating at a competitive price?

These are just some ideas that have been widely adopted by our neighbours.  It is not something futuristic or utopian, it is ‘normal’ next door. We should not waste much time with alternative history (if only we had done x in the past), but devote more effort to imagine a counterfactual geography; comparing ourselves with the best and keeping up with the Joneses in terms of more sustainable energy practices.  Maybe even beat them to it one day, and then watch in glee as they run to catch up with us.  ‘green’ with envy, if you like.

The above questions are not just rhetorical. Get a pen, calculator, back-of-an-envelope and google; every geeky citizen could do this.  I had a go at the first question. Turns out that we would have to quadruple our current on-shore windfarms before we can match the Germans on a MW/km2 basis, and increase them by 6.5 times before we match the Danes on a MW/capita basis.  That is a lot of energy we allow to blow right past us, wasted. The Danes and Germans are not radical people. They are trying to be responsible citizens, taking their little steps towards the goals set out in the IPCC reports. We don’t have to follow them slavishly. Filling the land with wind turbines is not the only way forwards. But if you want to forego one particular solution, then you have to be extra imaginative with the remaining options.  Go get your pen and recycled paper. And share your imaginative solutions, also with your MP.

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Fracking – A Path to Energy Security or Climate Vulnerability? https://blogs.sps.ed.ac.uk/global-environment-society-academy/2013/04/08/fracking/ https://blogs.sps.ed.ac.uk/global-environment-society-academy/2013/04/08/fracking/#respond Mon, 08 Apr 2013 11:05:05 +0000 http://blogs.sps.ed.ac.uk/global-environment-society-academy/?p=1 Continue reading ]]> A Perspective on Fracking by Prof. Dave Reay

I like gas. Each morning it is the source of instant heat for making my coffee. Each winter’s evening it is the roar in the boiler that spreads warmth through the house. At work too, this energy-packed gas is a daily focus of our climate change research, but it’s there that its darker side often comes to the fore. Natural gas consists almost entirely of ‘methane’ and, as methane is a greenhouse gas 25 times more powerful than carbon dioxide, it presents both problems and opportunities in the fight to limit anthropogenic climate change.

With a fossil-fuel heavy global energy system, methane looked like a 20th century success story in terms of tackling climate change. In the UK, the ‘Dash for Gas’ helped to nudge out carbon-intensive coal-burning power stations for more efficient, lower-emitting gas-fired versions. Per unit of electricity produced, gas power stations were emitting less than half the carbon dioxide of their coal-powered predecessors.

Since those heady days of North Sea exploitation that poured oil, gas and money into the UK, getting enough methane to keep the powerstations, cookers and boilers going has become increasingly difficult. National and global demand for gas has rocketed and easily-exploited supplies have dwindled. Imports of gas from Russia have risen, and with them the volatility of price and supply.

Now, the global expansion of a new extraction technology called ‘fracking’ heralds a new ‘Dash for Gas’ that could serve to provide energy security and carbon emission cuts which dwarf those of the last gas boom.  Unfortunately, this new process, and the vast reserves of gas it makes available, pose a major threat to avoiding dangerous climate change.

Fracking is a process whereby water, chemicals and sand are injected at high pressure into methane-bearing rock and shale deposits. The high pressure water opens up fissures in the rock and the sand particles (called proppants) then keep them open to allow the methane to flow. Once’ fracked’ the methane in the rocks can then be drawn out and used. The process is already used widely in the US, with huge extractions from the methane-rich Marcellus shale in the east of the country underway.

 

The huge volumes of ‘fracked’ methane have allowed the US to radically reduce its domestic use of coal and to close in on full energy security. So far, so good. However, coal production in the US has continued unabated, with the bargain-price coal now being shipped overseas (much of it to Europe) and burnt for energy generation there. In effect, methane fracking in the US has meant a reduction in US carbon dioxide emissions, but an increase globally. Add to that the great uncertainty over the amount of methane that is leaked from fracking sites and this new ‘Dash for Gas’ begins to look like a major problem for climate change mitigation.

To our atmosphere, exactly where greenhouse gases come from does not matter, it is the amount emitted globally that counts. ‘Dangerous’ climate change is commonly cited as being a post-industrial increase in the global average temperature of 2oC. We have already seen warming of 0.75oC and, on our current course, we are likely to well exceed the 2oC level during this century. Global expansion of methane fracking helps to lock us into this high emissions trajectory. It means a new generation of gas-fired power plants that will go on emitting CO2 for decades to come, while renewable generation struggles to compete with the low-cost, short-term gas bonanza.

For the jobs and growth agenda of most governments though, methane fracking is inevitably seen as a boon. In the UK it could help buffer energy prices and create new income streams as North Sea wells run dry. Globally it can help power economic development and temporarily bridge gaps between supply and demand.  Methane fracking exemplifies the kind of tradeoffs that have to be made between energy security and climate security, but there is little evidence that such tradeoffs have been properly assessed by the governments backing the fracking boom.

They like gas and so do I, but methane is a fossil fuel. As such our reliance on it has to wane rather than wax in the face of accelerating anthropogenic climate change. It is time that policies on fracking and similarly Janus-faced pillars of ‘sustainable growth’ began to encompass the time-span of human lives instead of parliaments.

 

Prof. Dave Reay is Chair in Carbon Management & Education at the University of Edinburgh’s School of Geosciences. Dave is Assistant Principal Environment & Society and the Director of the Global Environment and Society Academy, he is the designer and editor of the climate change science website Greenhouse Gas Online and of the Southern Ocean: Antarctic Seas and Wildlife website and has authored a number of books on climate change, including children’s book, ‘ Your Planet Needs You! A Kid’s Guide to Going Green’.  For more information about Dave and his work visit the GESA website

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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